Treat “things will definitely get worse” as a thought to address, not a fact about the future
In a 20-year twin study, each standard-deviation increase in pessimism was associated with about 13% higher overall mortality and 20% higher cardiovascular mortality. Higher optimism did not show a corresponding benefit. The concern is persistent pessimism, not failure to be upbeat enough.
What it takes
Free. The challenge is recognizing pessimism as a possible symptom rather than accurate prediction.
What you may gain
A cohort of 2,978 Australian twins over 50 was followed for an average of 20 years, with 1,068 deaths. Each standard-deviation increase in pessimism had a mortality ratio of 1.134 (95% CI 1.065–1.207, P=8.85×10⁻⁵) and cardiovascular mortality ratio of 1.196 (1.045–1.368, P=0.0093): about 13% and 20% higher, respectively. Pessimism was unrelated to cancer mortality, and optimism had no clear mortality association.
Context & considerations
Observational evidence cannot exclude illness causing pessimism. The authors argue that such an explanation should also predict cancer mortality, which they did not find, but unmeasured factors remain possible. No need to force positive thinking; the practical aim is to stop treating pessimistic expectations as reliable forecasts.
Research & references
Whitfield JB, Zhu G, Landers JG, Martin NG (2020). Pessimism is associated with greater all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but optimism is not protective. Scientific Reports, 10, 12609. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-69388-y