Favor skills involving practical work and judgment on site when considering automation risk
One US estimate classified about 47% of jobs as highly susceptible to computerization; later task-based estimates were much lower. The study identified three obstacles for machines: physical dexterity, creativity, and social interaction. Work requiring physical presence, nonstandard environments, and immediate judgment tends to be harder to replace than fixed procedures centered on information processing.
What it takes
Nothing. Evaluate the work you are considering against these dimensions before choosing.
What you may gain
Researchers estimated the probability of computerization for 702 US occupations and classified approximately 47% of employment as high risk. Their model used three “engineering bottlenecks”: perception and manipulation, including finger dexterity, manual dexterity, and work in cramped spaces or awkward positions; creative intelligence; and social intelligence. Within this framework, work involving nonstandard settings, hands-on skill, and situational judgment consistently had lower estimated susceptibility, rather than this being an isolated feature of one occupation. Routine information-processing jobs faced the greatest estimated risk.
Context & considerations
Disputed. The research first appeared as a working paper in 2013 and rated whole occupations. Later research analyzing individual tasks produced much lower high-risk estimates. The paper also does not specify when replacement would occur. Focus on the three bottlenecks rather than treating 47% as a forecast. On-site installation, maintenance, and care work illustrate why physical presence and nonstandard environments can offer greater resistance to replacement than purely clerical work.
Research & references
Frey CB, Osborne MA (2017). The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254–280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019