Look at registration statistics before accepting family claims: marriage and divorce rates use different denominators than you may think
China registered 6.106 million marriages in 2024, about one-fifth fewer than the year before, and 3.513 million divorces. Dividing these gives about 57.5%, often advertised online as a divorce rate above half. But those are not the same couples, so it does not mean half of marriages end in divorce. The official rates of 4.3‰ and 2.5‰ use the national population as denominator.
What it takes
Free. Reading the marriage-registration section of China's annual civil-affairs bulletin takes a few minutes.
What you may gain
In 2024, China legally registered 6.106 million marriages, down 20.5% year on year, for a crude marriage rate of 4.3‰. There were 3.513 million divorces: 2.622 million registered by civil-affairs departments and 891,000 through court judgments or mediation, for a crude divorce rate of 2.5‰. The bulletin defines these rates as marriages or divorces during the year divided by the average total population that year, expressed per 1,000 people. These are crude rates using everyone, not just married people, as denominator.
Context & considerations
The popular figure above 50% is a divorce-to-marriage ratio: 351.3 / 610.6 ≈ 57.5%. The numerator and denominator concern different cohorts, and the bulletin does not report that indicator. It cannot be read as the probability that a marriage will end in divorce. That requires following the same cohort of marriages over time; this chapter found no corresponding official data.
Research & references
Ministry of Civil Affairs of China (2025). Statistical Bulletin on Civil Affairs Development in 2024, section V(2)1 and note 5, web and PDF versions. https://www.mca.gov.cn/n1288/n1294/n1554/c1662004999980006190/content.html, https://www.mca.gov.cn/gdnps/n2445/n2451/n2458/n2681/c1662004999980006189/attr/400985.pdf